Friday March 27, 2009

New Report In The Journal of Nutrition Shows Soy Is Beneficial For Heart and Bone Health
PR Newswire 03-26-09
NORTHRIDGE, Calif., March 26, 2009 /PRNewswire-USNewswire via COMTEX/ -- New findings published in the April issue of the Journal of Nutrition suggest soyfoods can play an important role in promoting heart and bone health. The new research was presented at the eighth International Soy Symposium on the role of soy in health promotion and chronic disease prevention and treatment, which was held in Tokyo, November 9-12, 2008.
"Much progress has been made in understanding the health effects of soyfoods since the first Symposium was held in 1994. Each year, the amount of research conducted on the health effects of soy and soybean components continues to impress," says Mark Messina, Ph.D., author of the report and professor of nutrition at Loma Linda University. "The 2008 Symposium in Tokyo provided an ideal venue for researchers in the field to discuss and debate study designs and outcomes. The research presented on soy and heart and bone health showed strong rationale for people to include soy in their diets."
Soy and Heart Health
At the Symposium, the most comprehensive systematic review of the cholesterol-lowering effects of soy was presented. It covered the years 1978 through the present and found that in about two-thirds of the studies judged to be of high or moderate quality, soy protein was shown to significantly reduce total and/or LDL (bad) cholesterol. The meta-analysis that was part of the review showed a net reduction in LDL cholesterol of approximately 5 percent, which is in line with other data. Over time, a 5 percent reduction in LDL cholesterol can reduce heart disease risk from 10 to 15 percent.
"Although modest compared to cholesterol-lowering drugs like statins, the cholesterol-lowering effects of soy protein are similar to those of soluble fiber and certainly relevant from a public health perspective," says Messina. "Integrating a variety of heart-healthy foods - like soy, beans, nuts and certain vegetables - together into a healthy lifestyle are really the best approach to heart health."
When considering all the ways that heart health is potentially improved, soyfoods certainly look impressive, Messina says. In addition to the cholesterol-lowering effects of soy protein, full-fat soyfoods are also good sources of an essential omega-3 fatty acid, which independently lowers risk of heart disease. Plus, because many soyfoods are low in saturated fat and cholesterol free, they can support healthy cholesterol levels when used in place of many of the more traditional sources of protein in the U.S. diet that tend to be high in saturated fat and cholesterol. Furthermore, soyfoods may reduce heart disease risk independent of their effects on cholesterol, through such mechanisms as lowering blood pressure.
"Although no single coronary benefit can be considered to be especially robust, certainly collectively these effects of soyfoods will contribute to a significant reduction in the risk of coronary heart disease," concludes Messina.
Soy and Bone Health
There has been considerable interest in the effects of soy on bone health during the past 10 years, in part because of the low rate of hip fractures among Asians, a population known to have a high rate of soy consumption. Research presented at the Symposium offers hope that soyfoods promote bone health. For example, an Italian randomized clinical trial evaluated the effects of a soy extract on bone mineral density in postmenopausal osteopenic (those with loss of bone mass but not yet with clinical fracture or osteoporosis) women over a three-year period. Women given the soy extract experienced an 8 and 9 percent increase in spinal and hip bone mineral density, respectively, whereas among the women given a placebo, bone mineral density decreased at those sites by approximately 12 and 8 percent, respectively.(1)
In support of these clinical findings are the results of an epidemiologic study presented at the Symposium. The Singapore Chinese Health Study, a prospective cohort of more than 63,000 middle-aged and elderly subjects, examined the relationship between soy intake and risk of hip fracture. Subjects provided information on the intake of soy and other dietary factors at the start of the study and were monitored for approximately 7 years. During the follow-up period, higher soy intake was associated with a one-third reduction in hip fracture risk among postmenopausal women. The results of this study are in agreement with a previously published, prospective study involving women from Shanghai, which also found higher soy intake was associated with an approximate one-third reduction in fracture risk.(2)
For more information on soy, including recipes and nutritional information, visit www.SOYJOY.com.
About Pharmavite
For more than 35 years, consumers and retailers have trusted Pharmavite for high-quality, research-based products that contribute to optimal health and overall wellness. As a provider of great-tasting, nutritious products, like SOYJOY, Pharmavite is dedicated to helping people lead healthier lives through nutrition education and awareness. (www.Pharmavite.com)
Sources:
1. Breast safety and efficacy of genistein aglycone for postmenopausal bone loss: a follow-up study. J Clin Endocrinol Metab 2008;93:4787-96.
2. Prospective cohort study of soy food consumption and risk of bone fracture among postmenopausal women. Arch Intern Med 2005;165:1890-5.
http://www.lef.org/news/LefDailyNews.htm?NewsID=8059&Section=Nutrition

Sun exposure slashes risk of blood clots

Agence France-Presse 03-26-09
While sun exposure has long been linked to skin cancer, a new Swedish study shows it also dramatically reduces the risk of suffering blood clots, one of the authors of the report said on Wednesday.
"We found that women who suntan had about 30 percent lower risk of suffering blood clots," said Pelle Lindqvist, an associate professor at the obstetrics and gynecology department at the Karolinska University Hospital in Stockholm.
"There is also a 50-percent higher risk of blood clots in December, January and February in Sweden, when there is the least sun here," he told AFP.
Lindqvist and two colleagues at Lund University in southern Sweden studied the sunning habits of 40,000 Swedish women surveyed in 1990 about their habits, including whether they suntanned in the summer, the winter, used a sun bed or travelled south to catch the golden rays.
The researchers then followed the women's medical development for the next 12 years, and found that 312 had developed thrombosis, or blood clots.
Even adjusted for factors like exercise, smoking and alcohol habits and weight, the research showed that any amount of suntanning helped lower the risk of blood clots.
The study, which was published in the March edition of the Journal of Thrombosis and Haemostasis, only looked at women, but Lindqvist said he suspected men drew similar benefits from sunning.
"By sunning, you avoid a shortage of Vitamin D in the winter when people here in Sweden very often suffer a deficiency of that vitamin. It is only during the summer that we really have enough Vitamin D," he said.
It remained unclear why Vitamin D was important for the prevention of blood clots, Lindqvist said, adding that and other questions raised by the research would be the focus of future studies.
As for balancing the benefits of sun exposure against the risks of contracting skin cancer, he stressed that people should always avoid sunburn.
"But you should go out a bit every day, and it's not true that it's enough to go out late in the afternoon. You really should go out in the middle of the day, because that is when the production of Vitamin D occurs," he said.
A US study published early last year also showed that moderate sun exposure and the related production of Vitamin D improved survival rates for cancer victims, suggesting the benefits of sunning outweighed the skin cancer risks, especially in northern latitudes.
http://www.lef.org/news/LefDailyNews.htm?NewsID=8057&Section=Vitamins

Body clock regulates metabolism, finds UCI study

NewsRx.com 03-26-09
UC Irvine researchers have discovered that circadian rhythms our own body clock regulate energy levels in cells. The findings have far-reaching implications, from providing greater insights into the bond between the body's day-night patterns and metabolism to creating new ways to treat cancer, diabetes, obesity and a host of related diseases (see also University of California - Irvine).
In addition, Paolo Sassone-Corsi, Distinguished Professor and Chair of Pharmacology, and his colleagues found that the proteins involved with circadian rhythms and metabolism are intrinsically linked and dependent upon each other. Their study appears online in Science Express.
"Our circadian rhythms and metabolism are closely partnered to ensure that cells function properly and remain healthy," Sassone-Corsi said. "This discovery opens a new window for us to understand how these two fundamental processes work together, and it can have a great impact on new treatments for diseases caused by cell energy deficiencies."
Circadian rhythms of 24 hours govern fundamental physiological functions in almost all organisms. The circadian clocks are the essential time-tracking systems in our bodies that anticipate environmental changes and adapt to the appropriate time of day. Disruption of these rhythms can profoundly influence human health and has been linked to obesity, diabetes, insomnia, depression, coronary heart diseases and cancer.
Sassone-Corsi already had identified that the enzyme protein CLOCK is an essential molecular gear of the circadian machinery and interacts with a protein, SIRT1, which senses cell energy levels and modulates aging and metabolism.
In this study, he and his colleagues show that CLOCK works in balance with SIRT1 to direct activity in a cell pathway by which metabolic proteins send signals called the NAD+ salvage pathway. In turn, a key protein in that pathway, NAMPT, helps control CLOCK levels, creating a tightly regulated codependency between our circadian clock and metabolism.
"When the balance between these two vital processes is upset, normal cellular function can be disrupted," Sassone-Corsi said. "And this can lead to illness and disease."
The findings suggest that proper sleep and diet may help maintain or rebuild this balance, he said, and also help explain why lack of rest or disruption of normal sleep patterns can increase hunger, leading to obesity-related illnesses and accelerated aging.
The specific interaction between CLOCK and SIRT1 and the NAD+ salvage pathway also presents a starting point for drug development aimed at curbing cell dysfunction and death, thereby helping to solve major medical problems such cancer and diabetes.
Keywords: Bariatrics, Cancer, Circadian Rhythms, Drugs, Metabolism, Obesity, Obesity and Diabetes, Oncology, Pharmaceuticals, Pharmacology, Physiology, Therapies, University of California - Irvine.
This article was prepared by Obesity & Diabetes Week editors from staff and other reports. Copyright 2009, Obesity & Diabetes Week via NewsRx.com.
http://www.lef.org/news/LefDailyNews.htm?NewsID=8058&Section=Aging

Sodium limit too high for most Americans, says CDC

Foodnavigator.com, 27-Mar-2009

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has claimed that the current recommended limit for sodium intake may be too high for as many as two-thirds of Americans and has proposed a lower limit of 1,500mg.
At present, US adults are advised to consume no more than 2,300mg of sodium each day, equivalent to about six grams or one teaspoon of salt. However, despite the well-documented health impacts of excessive salt consumption, Americans currently consume an average of about ten grams of salt each day – or two-thirds more than the government-recommended maximum.
Now the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has proposed a limit of 1,500mg of sodium per day, or less than four grams of salt, for those it claims are particularly at risk of salt-related illness – a group that brackets the majority of Americans. This group makes up 69.2 percent of the US population and includes blacks and everyone over the age of 40, as well as those who already have high blood pressure.
Health benefits for all
Director of the CDC’s division for heart disease and stroke prevention Darwin Labarthe said: “Reducing sodium intake can prevent or delay increases in blood pressure for everyone…People need to know their recommended daily sodium limit and take action to reduce sodium intake.”
The CDC claims that its study is the first to use data regarding those particularly at risk of sodium-related health problems when considering recommended limits. The 2,300mg limit was outlined in the 2005 Dietary Guidelines for Americans, although the estimated 29 percent of Americans with high blood pressure are already advised to cut intake to a maximum of 1,500mg.
Challenge to industry
The health impacts of excessive salt consumption have been well-researched, including its contribution to high blood pressure, heart disease and stroke. With an estimated 80 percent of US sodium consumption coming from packaged foods, manufacturers have been under increasing pressure to cut salt content in their products. However, this presents challenges in terms of consumer acceptability, as well as in replicating the functionality of salt as a preservative or stabilizer.
Meanwhile, the American Heart Association (AHA) has voiced its support for the CDC proposal and said it is working with federal agencies including the CDC and the US Food and Drug Administration to develop strategies for industry to reduce sodium in packaged foods by 50 percent over the next ten years.
Chair of the AHA’s nutrition committee Linda Van Horn said: “The new CDC data adds to a growing body of scientific evidence that supports this recommendation – there are now a substantial number of scientific studies that show a direct relationship between salt intake and a rise in blood pressure. An upper limit of no more than 1,500 mg could significantly reduce the rate of high blood pressure in the United States.”
http://www.foodnavigator-usa.com/Science-Nutrition/
Sodium-limit-too-high-for-most-Americans-says-CDC

Calcium plus vitamin D may help shed body fat
Last Updated: 2009-03-26 16:56:43 -0400 (Reuters Health)
NEW YORK (Reuters Health) - Taking calcium and vitamin D supplements may help overweight women to lose body fat, but only if their calcium intake from food is already quite low, a small study suggests.
The study, which followed 63 overweight or obese women, found that those who took a calcium-plus-vitamin-D supplement in addition to a lower-calorie diet lost no more body fat over 15 weeks than those given a placebo.
When the researchers looked at only those women with a very low calcium intake before the study, the supplement did seem to have a benefit.
Among the women -- who had been getting less than 600 milligrams of calcium per day -- the calcium/vitamin D supplement spurred greater reductions in weight and body fat.
While the reason for the benefit is unclear, there was evidence that the supplement helped curb women's appetite for fatty food, the researchers report in the British Journal of Nutrition.
During a buffet-style test meal, the study found, women who'd been taking the supplement ate less fat than they had at a test meal done at the study's start. The same was not true of women in the placebo group, however.
"Our hypothesis is that the brain can detect the lack of calcium and seeks to compensate by spurring food intake, which obviously works against the goals of any weight loss program" senior researcher Dr. Angelo Tremblay, of Laval University in Quebec, Canada, said in a news release from the university.
"Sufficient calcium intake seems to stifle the desire to eat more," he explained.
Some past studies, but not all, have suggested that calcium helps speed fat loss among dieters. The current findings, according to Tremblay's team, suggest that for overweight people with a very low calcium intake, calcium/vitamin D supplements "might be necessary" for weight-loss success.
For the study, the researchers had 63 overweight middle-aged women go on a calorie-restricted diet. All had been getting inadequate calcium in their diets -- less than 800 mg, compared with the recommended 1,000 mg for women ages 19 to 50.
Half of the women were randomly assigned to take a calcium/vitamin D supplement twice a day, which provided 1,200 mg of calcium daily. The other half took placebo pills.
Only women with the lowest calcium intake prior to the study -- less than 600 mg -- seemed to get added fat-loss benefits from the supplement. Supplement users lost 13 pounds, on average, versus 3 pounds in the placebo group.
While the results from the test meals suggest that extra calcium may help calcium-deficient women curb their appetites while dieting, more research is needed to confirm that, according to Tremblay's team.
The study was funded by Wyeth Consumer Healthcare, Inc., which also supplied the calcium/vitamin D supplement.
SOURCE: British Journal of Nutrition, 2009
http://www.reutershealth.com/archive/2009/03/26/eline/links/20090326elin008.html

Steaming hot tea linked to cancer
Drinking steaming hot tea has been linked with an increased risk of oesophageal (food tube) cancer, Iranian scientists have found.
The British Medical Journal study found that drinking black tea at temperatures of 70C or higher increased the risk.
Experts said the finding could explain the increased oesophageal cancer risk in some non-Western populations.
Adding milk, as most tea drinkers in Western countries do, cools the drink enough to eliminate the risk.
The oesophagus is the muscular tube that carries food from the throat to the stomach.
Oesophagus cancers kill more than 500,000 people worldwide each year and oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) is the most common type.
Tobacco and alcohol are the main factors linked to the development of oesophageal cancers in Europe and America.
But it has not been clear why other populations around the world have high rates of the disease although there has been a theory that regularly drinking very hot drinks damages the lining of the gullet.
A litre a day
Golestan Province in northern Iran has one of the highest rates of OSCC in the world, but rates of smoking and alcohol consumption are low and women are as likely to have a diagnosis as men. Tea drinking, however, is widespread.
The University of Tehran researchers studied tea drinking habits among 300 people diagnosed with OSCC and compared them with a group of 570 people from the same area.
Nearly all participants drank black tea regularly, on average drinking over a litre a day.
“ A regular habit of eating and drinking very hot foods and drinks could increase your risk of developing cancer of the oesophagus ”
Oliver Childs, Cancer Research UK
Compared with drinking warm or lukewarm tea (65C or less), drinking hot tea (65-69C) was associated with twice the risk of oesophageal cancer, and drinking very hot tea (70C or more) was associated with an eight-fold increased risk.
The speed with which people drank their tea was also important.
Drinking a cup of tea in under two minutes straight after it was poured was associated with a five-fold higher risk of cancer compared with drinking tea four or more minutes after being poured,
There was no association between the amount of tea consumed and risk of cancer.
Because the researchers had relied on study participants to say how hot their tea was, they then went on to measure the temperature of tea drunk by nearly 50,000 residents of the same area.
This ranged from under 60C to more than 70C, and reported tea drinking temperature and actual temperature was found to be similar.
Tea lovers
Writing in the BMJ, the researchers led by Professor Reza Malekzadeh, said: "Our results showed a noticeable increase in risk of oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma associated with drinking hot tea.
"A large proportion of Golestan inhabitants drink hot tea, so this habit may account for a substantial proportion of the cases of oesophageal cancer in this population."
Previous studies from the UK have reported people prefer their tea to be about 56-60C - cool enough not to be risky.
In a BMJ editorial, David Whiteman from the Queensland Institute of Medical Research in Australia said: "The mechanism through which heat promotes the development of tumours warrants further exploration and might be given renewed impetus on the basis of these findings."
Dr Whiteman advised tea-drinkers to simply wait a few minutes for their brew to cool from "scalding" to "tolerable".
Oliver Childs, a spokesman for Cancer Research UK, said: "Tea drinking is part of many cultures, and these results certainly don't point to tea itself being the problem.
"But they do provide more evidence that a regular habit of eating and drinking very hot foods and drinks could increase your risk of developing cancer of the oesophagus."
He added: "People in this region of northern Iran often drink very hot tea as part of their daily routine. We're a nation of tea lovers in the UK, but we don't tend to drink tea at such high temperatures and we usually add milk, which cools it down."
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/7965380.stm

Pope 'distorting condom science'
One of the world's most prestigious medical journals, the Lancet, has accused Pope Benedict XVI of distorting science in his remarks on condom use.
It said the Pope's recent comments that condoms exacerbated the problem of HIV/Aids were wildly inaccurate and could have devastating consequences.
The Pope had said the "cruel epidemic" should be tackled through abstinence and fidelity rather than condom use.
Correspondents say the attack from the Lancet was unprecedentedly virulent.
Speaking during his first visit to Africa, the Pope said HIV/Aids was "a tragedy that cannot be overcome by money alone, that cannot be overcome through the distribution of condoms, which can even increase the problem".
The Pope said "the traditional teaching of the Church has proven to be the only failsafe way to prevent the spread of HIV/Aids".
The BBC's David Willey in Rome says the Church's view is that encouraging people to use condoms only minimises the effects of behaviour that in itself damages lives.
'Devastating'
But the London-based Lancet said the Pope had "publicly distorted scientific evidence to promote Catholic doctrine on this issue".
It said the male latex condom was the single most efficient way to reduce the sexual transmission of HIV/Aids.
"Whether the Pope's error was due to ignorance or a deliberate attempt to manipulate science to support Catholic ideology is unclear," said the journal.
But it said the comment still stood and urged the Vatican to issue a retraction.
"When any influential person, be it a religious or political figure, makes a false scientific statement that could be devastating to the health of millions of people, they should retract or correct the public record," it said.
"Anything less from Pope Benedict would be an immense disservice to the public and health advocates, including many thousands of Catholics, who work tirelessly to try and prevent the spread of HIV/Aids worldwide."
Our correspondent says the article shows how far the Pope's attempts to clarify the Vatican's position on condoms have backfired.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7967173.stm

L-Carnitine may Prevent and Treat Liver Cancer

by Sherry Baker, NaturalNews.com

(NaturalNews) According to the National Cancer Institute (NCI), liver cancer is often fatal. In fact, about 21,000 Americans were diagnosed with liver cancer last year and over 18,000 deaths were attributed to the disease. The Mayo Clinic web site points out that not only is primary liver cancer rarely discovered at an early stage, but it also doesn't respond to current treatments. However, a new study offers hope that a viable therapy could be on the horizon. For the first time, scientists have found evidence that a natural substance may be able to prevent, slow or even reverse the occurrence of liver cancer.

L-carnitine, a naturally occurring amino acid, is synthesized in the liver and kidneys and is also derived from dietary sources, including avocados, tempeh, dairy products and red meat. A team of researchers at King Saud University in Saudi Arabia investigated the role of L-carnitine in the development of liver malignancies and, in their study just published in the World Journal of Gastroenterology, these scientists concluded that a deficiency of L-carnitine is a risk factor for liver cancer. What's more, they found long-term L-carnitine supplementation may prevent the development of liver cancer.

The research team, headed by Professor Sayed-Ahmed of King Saud University's College of Pharmacy, used an animal model of liver cancer to study how cancer develops when there is a lack of L-carnitine. They also studied what happened to liver cancers when the animals received supplementation with the amino acid. When the laboratory rats had their L-carnitine levels depleted, there was a progressive increase in the activities of liver enzymes along with massive degenerative changes in the liver and evidence of pre-malignant lesions in liver tissues. However, supplementation with L-carnitine resulted in a 100 percent reversal of the increase in liver enzymes compared to normal values and the pre-cancerous liver lesions went away, too.

This is not the first research to show L-carnitine may protect the liver. Noting that liver cancer is usually preceded by chronic inflammation, Japanese scientists published research in the International Journal of Cancer (vol. 113, 2005) showing that L-carnitine effectively protects livers from the production of free radicals caused by inflammation. Earlier research published in the journal Diabetes Care by scientists at Wayne State University School of Medicine in Detroit, Michigan, also found that L-carnitine supplements helped with pain, nerve regeneration, and vibratory perception in patients with chronic diabetic neuropathy (nerve pain).
http://www.naturalnews.com/025940.html

Doctors groups allege WellPoint's collusion cost them millions
A federal lawsuit accuses the owner of Anthem Blue Cross of fixing prices for 'out-of-network' procedures.

Los Angeles Times  March 26, 2009

Anthem Blue Cross of California parent WellPoint Inc. colluded with database firm Ingenix to fix prices in a multistate scheme to underpay doctors for so-called out-of-network medical care, physician organizations contended in a lawsuit filed Wednesday.

The American Medical Assn., the California Medical Assn. and other state medical organizations said in the suit filed in federal court in Los Angeles that the scheme cost physicians millions of dollars and resulted in patients paying more than they should have.

Similar lawsuits were filed last month against WellPoint competitors Aetna Inc. of Hartford, Conn., and Cigna Corp. of Philadelphia.

Ingenix's price database is so widely used to set reimbursement rates that the litigation is believed to affect seven out of 10 people with health insurance.

Indianapolis-based WellPoint said in a statement that it was committed to providing appropriate reimbursement for out-of-network services. The company said it was reviewing the suit and had no further comment.

An earlier AMA suit against Ingenix parent UnitedHealth ended in a tentative settlement, with the company agreeing to pay $350 million.

Earlier this year, Minnetonka, Minn.-based UnitedHealth agreed to shut down the database. In exchange, New York Atty. Gen. Andrew Cuomo dropped an investigation. Cuomo had accused Ingenix of cheating patients by using faulty data to reduce out-of-network payments.

Ingenix used claims information from client insurers to establish "usual and customary" payments for care delivered by physicians who do not have rate contracts with the health insurance companies.

Physicians contend that those data do not accurately reflect local market rates. Insurers counter that wide variations in physician prices drive up costs.

A new database is being developed under the supervision of the New York attorney general's office. UnitedHealth agreed to contribute $20 million toward setting up the new database. Aetna and WellPoint have agreed to chip in $20 million and $10 million, respectively.
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-pricefix26-2009mar26,0,7020372.story

Space storm alert: 90 seconds from catastrophe

New Scientist, 23 March 2009 by Michael Brooks
IT IS midnight on 22 September 2012 and the skies above Manhattan are filled with a flickering curtain of colourful light. Few New Yorkers have seen the aurora this far south but their fascination is short-lived. Within a few seconds, electric bulbs dim and flicker, then become unusually bright for a fleeting moment. Then all the lights in the state go out. Within 90 seconds, the entire eastern half of the US is without power.
A year later and millions of Americans are dead and the nation's infrastructure lies in tatters. The World Bank declares America a developing nation. Europe, Scandinavia, China and Japan are also struggling to recover from the same fateful event - a violent storm, 150 million kilometres away on the surface of the sun.
It sounds ridiculous. Surely the sun couldn't create so profound a disaster on Earth. Yet an extraordinary report funded by NASA and issued by the US National Academy of Sciences (NAS) in January this year claims it could do just that.
Over the last few decades, western civilisations have busily sown the seeds of their own destruction. Our modern way of life, with its reliance on technology, has unwittingly exposed us to an extraordinary danger: plasma balls spewed from the surface of the sun could wipe out our power grids, with catastrophic consequences.
The projections of just how catastrophic make chilling reading. "We're moving closer and closer to the edge of a possible disaster," says Daniel Baker, a space weather expert based at the University of Colorado in Boulder, and chair of the NAS committee responsible for the report.
It is hard to conceive of the sun wiping out a large amount of our hard-earned progress. Nevertheless, it is possible. The surface of the sun is a roiling mass of plasma - charged high-energy particles - some of which escape the surface and travel through space as the solar wind. From time to time, that wind carries a billion-tonne glob of plasma, a fireball known as a coronal mass ejection (see "When hell comes to Earth"). If one should hit the Earth's magnetic shield, the result could be truly devastating.
The incursion of the plasma into our atmosphere causes rapid changes in the configuration of Earth's magnetic field which, in turn, induce currents in the long wires of the power grids. The grids were not built to handle this sort of direct current electricity. The greatest danger is at the step-up and step-down transformers used to convert power from its transport voltage to domestically useful voltage. The increased DC current creates strong magnetic fields that saturate a transformer's magnetic core. The result is runaway current in the transformer's copper wiring, which rapidly heats up and melts. This is exactly what happened in the Canadian province of Quebec in March 1989, and six million people spent 9 hours without electricity. But things could get much, much worse than that.

Worse than Katrina

The most serious space weather event in history happened in 1859. It is known as the Carrington event, after the British amateur astronomer Richard Carrington, who was the first to note its cause: "two patches of intensely bright and white light" emanating from a large group of sunspots. The Carrington event comprised eight days of severe space weather.
There were eyewitness accounts of stunning auroras, even at equatorial latitudes. The world's telegraph networks experienced severe disruptions, and Victorian magnetometers were driven off the scale.
Though a solar outburst could conceivably be more powerful, "we haven't found an example of anything worse than a Carrington event", says James Green, head of NASA's planetary division and an expert on the events of 1859. "From a scientific perspective, that would be the one that we'd want to survive." However, the prognosis from the NAS analysis is that, thanks to our technological prowess, many of us may not.
There are two problems to face. The first is the modern electricity grid, which is designed to operate at ever higher voltages over ever larger areas. Though this provides a more efficient way to run the electricity networks, minimising power losses and wastage through overproduction, it has made them much more vulnerable to space weather. The high-power grids act as particularly efficient antennas, channelling enormous direct currents into the power transformers.
The second problem is the grid's interdependence with the systems that support our lives: water and sewage treatment, supermarket delivery infrastructures, power station controls, financial markets and many others all rely on electricity. Put the two together, and it is clear that a repeat of the Carrington event could produce a catastrophe the likes of which the world has never seen. "It's just the opposite of how we usually think of natural disasters," says John Kappenman, a power industry analyst with the Metatech Corporation of Goleta, California, and an advisor to the NAS committee that produced the report. "Usually the less developed regions of the world are most vulnerable, not the highly sophisticated technological regions."
According to the NAS report, a severe space weather event in the US could induce ground currents that would knock out 300 key transformers within about 90 seconds, cutting off the power for more than 130 million people (see map). From that moment, the clock is ticking for America.
First to go - immediately for some people - is drinkable water. Anyone living in a high-rise apartment, where water has to be pumped to reach them, would be cut off straight away. For the rest, drinking water will still come through the taps for maybe half a day. With no electricity to pump water from reservoirs, there is no more after that.
There is simply no electrically powered transport: no trains, underground or overground. Our just-in-time culture for delivery networks may represent the pinnacle of efficiency, but it means that supermarket shelves would empty very quickly - delivery trucks could only keep running until their tanks ran out of fuel, and there is no electricity to pump any more from the underground tanks at filling stations.
Back-up generators would run at pivotal sites - but only until their fuel ran out. For hospitals, that would mean about 72 hours of running a bare-bones, essential care only, service. After that, no more modern healthcare.
72 hours of healthcare remaining
The truly shocking finding is that this whole situation would not improve for months, maybe years: melted transformer hubs cannot be repaired, only replaced. "From the surveys I've done, you might have a few spare transformers around, but installing a new one takes a well-trained crew a week or more," says Kappenman. "A major electrical utility might have one suitably trained crew, maybe two."
Within a month, then, the handful of spare transformers would be used up. The rest will have to be built to order, something that can take up to 12 months.
Even when some systems are capable of receiving power again, there is no guarantee there will be any to deliver. Almost all natural gas and fuel pipelines require electricity to operate. Coal-fired power stations usually keep reserves to last 30 days, but with no transport systems running to bring more fuel, there will be no electricity in the second month.
30 days of coal left
Nuclear power stations wouldn't fare much better. They are programmed to shut down in the event of serious grid problems and are not allowed to restart until the power grid is up and running.
With no power for heating, cooling or refrigeration systems, people could begin to die within days. There is immediate danger for those who rely on medication. Lose power to New Jersey, for instance, and you have lost a major centre of production of pharmaceuticals for the entire US. Perishable medications such as insulin will soon be in short supply. "In the US alone there are a million people with diabetes," Kappenman says. "Shut down production, distribution and storage and you put all those lives at risk in very short order."
Help is not coming any time soon, either. If it is dark from the eastern seaboard to Chicago, some affected areas are hundreds, maybe thousands of miles away from anyone who might help. And those willing to help are likely to be ill-equipped to deal with the sheer scale of the disaster. "If a Carrington event happened now, it would be like a hurricane Katrina, but 10 times worse," says Paul Kintner, a plasma physicist at Cornell University in Ithaca, New York.
In reality, it would be much worse than that. Hurricane Katrina's societal and economic impact has been measured at $81 billion to $125 billion. According to the NAS report, the impact of what it terms a "severe geomagnetic storm scenario" could be as high as $2 trillion. And that's just the first year after the storm. The NAS puts the recovery time at four to 10 years. It is questionable whether the US would ever bounce back.
4-10 years to recover
"I don't think the NAS report is scaremongering," says Mike Hapgood, who chairs the European Space Agency's space weather team. Green agrees. "Scientists are conservative by nature and this group is really thoughtful," he says. "This is a fair and balanced report."
Such nightmare scenarios are not restricted to North America. High latitude nations such as Sweden and Norway have been aware for a while that, while regular views of the aurora are pretty, they are also reminders of an ever-present threat to their electricity grids. However, the trend towards installing extremely high voltage grids means that lower latitude countries are also at risk. For example, China is on the way to implementing a 1000-kilovolt electrical grid, twice the voltage of the US grid. This would be a superb conduit for space weather-induced disaster because the grid's efficiency to act as an antenna rises as the voltage between the grid and the ground increases. "China is going to discover at some point that they have a problem," Kappenman says.
Neither is Europe sufficiently prepared. Responsibility for dealing with space weather issues is "very fragmented" in Europe, says Hapgood.
Europe's electricity grids, on the other hand, are highly interconnected and extremely vulnerable to cascading failures. In 2006, the routine switch-off of a small part of Germany's grid - to let a ship pass safely under high-voltage cables - caused a cascade power failure across western Europe. In France alone, five million people were left without electricity for two hours. "These systems are so complicated we don't fully understand the effects of twiddling at one place," Hapgood says. "Most of the time it's alright, but occasionally it will get you."
The good news is that, given enough warning, the utility companies can take precautions, such as adjusting voltages and loads, and restricting transfers of energy so that sudden spikes in current don't cause cascade failures. There is still more bad news, however. Our early warning system is becoming more unreliable by the day.
By far the most important indicator of incoming space weather is NASA's Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE). The probe, launched in 1997, has a solar orbit that keeps it directly between the sun and Earth. Its uninterrupted view of the sun means it gives us continuous reports on the direction and velocity of the solar wind and other streams of charged particles that flow past its sensors. ACE can provide between 15 and 45 minutes' warning of any incoming geomagnetic storms. The power companies need about 15 minutes to prepare their systems for a critical event, so that would seem passable.
15 minutes' warning
However, observations of the sun and magnetometer readings during the Carrington event shows that the coronal mass ejection was travelling so fast it took less than 15 minutes to get from where ACE is positioned to Earth. "It arrived faster than we can do anything," Hapgood says.
There is another problem. ACE is 11 years old, and operating well beyond its planned lifespan. The onboard detectors are not as sensitive as they used to be, and there is no telling when they will finally give up the ghost. Furthermore, its sensors become saturated in the event of a really powerful solar flare. "It was built to look at average conditions rather than extremes," Baker says.
He was part of a space weather commission that three years ago warned about the problems of relying on ACE. "It's been on my mind for a long time," he says. "To not have a spare, or a strategy to replace it if and when it should fail, is rather foolish."
There is no replacement for ACE due any time soon. Other solar observation satellites, such as the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) can provide some warning, but with less detailed information and - crucially - much later. "It's quite hard to assess what the impact of losing ACE will be," Hapgood says. "We will largely lose the early warning capability."
The world will, most probably, yawn at the prospect of a devastating solar storm until it happens. Kintner says his students show a "deep indifference" when he lectures on the impact of space weather. But if policy-makers show a similar indifference in the face of the latest NAS report, it could cost tens of millions of lives, Kappenman reckons. "It could conceivably be the worst natural disaster possible," he says.
The report outlines the worst case scenario for the US. The "perfect storm" is most likely on a spring or autumn night in a year of heightened solar activity - something like 2012. Around the equinoxes, the orientation of the Earth's field to the sun makes us particularly vulnerable to a plasma strike.
What's more, at these times of year, electricity demand is relatively low because no one needs too much heating or air conditioning. With only a handful of the US grid's power stations running, the system relies on computer algorithms shunting large amounts of power around the grid and this leaves the network highly vulnerable to sudden spikes.
If ACE has failed by then, or a plasma ball flies at us too fast for any warning from ACE to reach us, the consequences could be staggering. "A really large storm could be a planetary disaster," Kappenman says.
So what should be done? No one knows yet - the report is meant to spark that conversation. Baker is worried, though, that the odds are stacked against that conversation really getting started. As the NAS report notes, it is terribly difficult to inspire people to prepare for a potential crisis that has never happened before and may not happen for decades to come. "It takes a lot of effort to educate policy-makers, and that is especially true with these low-frequency events," he says.
We should learn the lessons of hurricane Katrina, though, and realise that "unlikely" doesn't mean "won't happen". Especially when the stakes are so high. The fact is, it could come in the next three or four years - and with devastating effects. "The Carrington event happened during a mediocre, ho-hum solar cycle," Kintner says. "It came out of nowhere, so we just don't know when something like that is going to happen again."

When hell comes to Earth

Severe space weather events often coincide with the appearance of sunspots, which are indicators of particularly intense magnetic fields at the sun's surface.
The chaotic motion of charged particles in the upper atmosphere of the sun creates magnetic fields that writhe, twist and turn, and occasionally snap and reconfigure themselves in what is known as a "reconnection". These reconnection events are violent, and can fling out billions of tonness of plasma in a "coronal mass ejection" (CME).
If flung towards the Earth, the plasma ball will accelerate as it travels through space and its intense magnetic field will soon interact with the planet's magnetic field, the magnetosphere. Depending on the relative orientation of the two fields, several things can happen. If the fields are oriented in the same direction, they slip round one another. In the worst case scenario, though, when the field of a particularly energetic CME opposes the Earth's field, things get much more dramatic. "The Earth can't cope with the plasma," says James Green, head of NASA's planetary division. "The CME just opens up the magnetosphere like a can-opener, and matter squirts in."
The sun's activity waxes and wanes every 11 years or so, with the appearance of sunspots following the same cycle. This period isn't consistent, however. Sometimes the interval between sunspot maxima is as short as nine years, other times as long as 14 years. At the moment the sun appears calm. "We're in the equivalent of an idyllic summer's day. The sun is quiet and benign, the quietest it has been for 100 years," says Mike Hapgood, who chairs the European Space Agency's space weather team, "but it could turn the other way." The next solar maximum is expected in 2012.
Michael Brooks's latest book is 13 Things That Don't Make Sense (Profile, 2008).
http://www.newscientist.com/article/
mg20127001.300-space-storm-alert-90-seconds-from-catastrophe.html?full=true

Hormone-mimics In Plastic Water Bottles Act As Functional Estrogens

ScienceDaily (Mar. 27, 2009) — Plastic packaging is not without its downsides, and if you thought mineral water was ‘clean’, it may be time to think again. According to Martin Wagner and Jörg Oehlmann from the Department of Aquatic Ecotoxicology at the Goethe University in Frankfurt am Main, Germany, plastic mineral water bottles contaminate drinking water with estrogenic chemicals.
In an analysis of commercially available mineral waters, the researchers found evidence of estrogenic compounds leaching out of the plastic packaging into the water. What’s more, these chemicals are potent in vivo and result in an increased development of embryos in the New Zealand mud snail. These findings, which show for the first time that substances leaching out of plastic food packaging materials act as functional estrogens, are published in Springer’s journal Environmental Science and Pollution Research.
Wagner and Oehlmann looked at whether the migration of substances from packaging material into foodstuffs contributes to human exposure to man-made hormones. They analyzed 20 brands of mineral water available in Germany – nine bottled in glass, nine bottled in plastic and two bottled in composite packaging (paperboard boxes coated with an inner plastic film). The researchers took water samples from the bottles and tested them for the presence of estrogenic chemicals in vitro. They then carried out a reproduction test with the New Zealand mud snail to determine the source and potency of the xenoestrogens.
They detected estrogen contamination in 60% of the samples (12 of the 20 brands) analyzed. Mineral waters in glass bottles were less estrogenic than waters in plastic bottles. Specifically, 33% of all mineral waters bottled in glass compared with 78% of waters in plastic bottles and both waters bottled in composite packaging showed significant hormonal activity.
By breeding the New Zealand mud snail in both plastic and glass water bottles, the researchers found more than double the number of embryos in plastic bottles compared with glass bottles. Taken together, these results demonstrate widespread contamination of mineral water with potent man-made estrogens that partly originate from compounds leaching out of the plastic packaging material.
The authors conclude: “We must have identified just the tip of the iceberg in that plastic packaging may be a major source of xenohormone* contamination of many other edibles. Our findings provide an insight into the potential exposure to endocrine-disrupting chemicals due to unexpected sources of contamination.”
*man-made substance that has a hormone-like effect
Wagner et al. Endocrine disruptors in bottled mineral water: total estrogenic burden and migration from plastic bottles. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 2009; DOI: 10.1007/s11356-009-0107-7
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/03/090326100714.htm

Bad News For Insomniacs: 'Hunger Hormones' Affected By Poor Sleep

ScienceDaily (Mar. 26, 2009) — Insomnia has long been associated with poor health, including weight gain and even obesity. Now researchers at UCLA have found out why.
In a study to be published in the May issue of the journal Psychoneuroendocrinology and currently available online by subscription, Sarosh Motivala, an assistant professor of psychiatry at the Semel Institute for Neuroscience and Human Behavior at UCLA, and colleagues looked at two hormones that are primarily responsible for regulating the body's energy balance, telling the body when it is hungry and when it is full. The study found that chronic insomnia disrupts one of these two hormones.
To date, no study has evaluated nocturnal levels of the two hormones, ghrelin and leptin, in primary insomnia patients. Ghrelin, a peptide secreted by the stomach, stimulates appetite and increases before meals. Leptin, which affects body weight and is secreted primarily by fat cells, signals the hypothalamus regarding the degree of fat storage in the body; decreased leptin tells the body there is a calorie shortage and promotes hunger, while increased levels promote energy expenditure.
In the study, researchers compared healthy sleepers with those suffering from chronic insomnia and measured the levels of the two hormones at various times throughout the night. They found that while leptin levels averaged out over the night to be roughly the same between the two groups, levels of ghrelin were 30 percent lower in insomnia sufferers.
On the face of it, a decreased level of ghrelin would seem to inhibit weight gain; it is an increase in ghrelin, after all, that stimulates appetite. But Motivala compared his findings with other, earlier studies on sleep deprivation and speculates that a switch may occur during the day: Sleep loss leads to increased ghrelin and decreased leptin, a "double whammy" that stimulates appetite. Motivala is currently working on a study to examine this switch.
"The current study shows that insomnia patients have a dysregulation in energy balance that could explain why these patients gain weight over time," said Motivala, who is also a member of the Cousins Center for Psychoneuroimmunology at UCLA. "This is an exciting finding because it highlights how diverse behaviors like sleep and eating are connected. We are just beginning to explore the possible consequences of these connections, but it is another example of the importance of a good night's sleep for the body."
For the study, 38 male participants were divided into two groups — 14 insomnia sufferers and 24 healthy subjects. Both groups had similar ages and body weight. Both groups underwent polysomnography sleep studies that monitor brain waves. Circulating levels of ghrelin and leptin were measured at 11 p.m., 2 a.m. and 6 a.m. Ghrelin levels across the night were significantly lower in insomnia patients, while leptin were not significantly different between the two groups.
Sarosh J. Motivala, A. Janet Tomiyama, Michael Ziegler, Srikrishna Khandrika, Michael R. Irwin. Nocturnal levels of ghrelin and leptin and sleep in chronic insomnia. Psychoneuroendocrinology, 2009; 34 (4): 540 DOI: 10.1016/j.psyneuen.2008.10.016
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/03/090325132151.htm